We can know

Throughout history, countless prophets from countless religions have issued countless prophecies predicting the end of the world. Radio personality Harold Camping and the website www.wecanknow.com, predict the “rapture of believers” will occur on May 21, 2011 (this weekend), with destruction of the earth and universe to follow on October 21. In 1992, Camping previously predicted these events would occur in September 1994.

While some take such predictions seriously, liquidating their assets etc., others believe the prophecies of Michael Nostradamus have already predicted the future. Between 1550 and 1567, Nostradamus published more than 6000 self-described prophecies, many in vague “quatrains” like those in The Prophecies (1555). Through recognizing the prophecy after the event has occurred (“post diction”), perhaps up to 60 of his prophecies have been interpreted as correct. Despite his reputation as history's most successful prophet, Nostradamus' success rate is apparently only about 1 percent.

Today, devotees of prophecy need look no further than their own lives. Thanks to engineering, mathematics, and science, everyone makes correct prophecy – a very large number of times every day. When we set an alarm clock, turn an auto ignition key, cross a bridge, take a prescription medication, or do virtually anything involving technology, we correctly predict the future. We can know that unless something is wrong, the alarm will go off, the car will start, the bridge will hold, the medication will work, – and so on. While problems do occur, your prophecy success rate dwarfs Nostradamus' at well over 99 percent.

The power to predict the future is the gold standard of science, a self correcting method of observation, experiment, publication, and competition that evolves mathematical relationships correctly modeling nature. Engineers employ these mathematical relationships to design, construct, and test the technologies we trust.

Isaac Newton's kinematic equations, published in Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy (1687), model the behavior of objects in gravitational fields with great accuracy and precision. Given the mass of a projectile, the energy consumed, and the angle at which the projectile is released, Newton's equations predict the velocity of the projectile, its path, its greatest altitude, and where and when it will land. Similarly, engineers use James Clerk Maxwell's equations (and many others) to make your auto go. Equations of statics, dynamics, and harmonic motion predict bridge, building, and highway behavior. Statistical equations help physicians and pharmacists correctly predict how people – and pathologies - react to medications.

Thanks to the hard work of a myriad of unappreciated scientists and engineers, every one of us successfully predicts the future much more correctly and often than Nostradamus. Furthermore, there is no need to interpret our predictions - they are obviously correct, first time and every time. You can bet your life on it.

Although science and engineering are not perfect, their mathematical models predict the future behavior of machines, materials, organisms, structures, and many other things – correctly, quantitatively, and repeatedly. Science and engineering does not require faith, we trust our lives to technology daily because we know it works.

What will happen on May 21, 2011? No one can be sure. However, thanks to the equations of statistics and recorded data, we can know it is likely that our bridges will hold, our medications will work, and our cars will start - and that the “rapture of believers” will not.

Published May 19, 2011 with the quotation below.  

If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.   Isaac Newton